Charlottesville Real Estate September Sales Statistics
October 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
August was rough, and September wasn’t any better for the Charlottesville real estate market. Below are the charts for the sales in the Charlottesville area in September, and for the entire year-to-date. As always the sales data is compiled from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS.
Let’s take a look:
For the month of September, the Charlottesville area saw a 33% drop in sales compared to September of 2006. Ouch. That is after the 30% year-over-year drop in August. The only area that actually saw an increase in sales was the City of Charlottesville, which had 4 more sales.
Now let’s see how the September numbers affected the year-to-date statistics for the Charlottesville area:
The sales deficit for the year is holding steady at 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006. That makes three consecutive months where the deficit has remained 22% (almost four– in June, the deficit was 23%). If there is some good news here, I guess that is it. If this holding trend continues, it may signal that we are in the bottom of the current dip. Right now, it is too early to be able to tell.
Albemarle is still the only area that has seen a drop in the median sale price at -2%. For the entire Charlottesville area, the median has risen 4.5% so far this year. While that number isn’t exactly spectacular, it is healthy and sustainable, which is a very good thing.
I was hoping that would able to post some Days on Market stats, as the rules have changed around here, but that will have to wait at least another month as the MLS sorts things out.
As we move into the final quarter of the year, the stats are bound to get more and more intriguing as we begin to get a complete picture of the 2007 Year in Real Estate. Stay tuned for more stats.
If you are reading this and have questions about the stats in specific neighborhoods or other areas not covered here, just let me know, I am happy to provide what I can.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, market statistics, housing statistics, median home price, home sales statistics [/tags]
The Charlottesville Area is More than Charlottesville and Albemarle
September 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
This is me in the latest edition of Abode in the C-Ville Weekly. The purpose of the article was to expose people to the idea of looking at real estate in the more rural areas that surround Charlottesville and Albemarle as potentially better long-term investments.
Most of the attention in our area has always been focused on Charlottesville and Albemarle (heck, my personal site is titled “Charlottesville Area Real Estate”). Truth be told, however, the outlying counties (Fluvanna, Albemarle, Louisa, et. al.) have always provided a very attractive alternative to living in Charlottesville and Albemarle. They have been attractive because of their relative affordability.
The contrast in price between Charlottesville/Albemarle and its surrounds was quite stark a few years ago. The first buyer client that I ever worked with came to me looking for a home in Albemarle. For the home he was seeking at the price he could afford, Albemarle had 4 homes listed in the MLS. Fluvanna, on the other hand, offered 30 homes. Where do you think he bought a house?
That gap is now lessening, however. As the market became hotter and hotter, prices rose dramatically in the more rural counties. While those rural counties still tend to be more affordable, for a number of reasons, the gap has shrunk to the point that now people have a real choice to make when they come to the area. The spillover from Charlottesville and Albemarle has lead to economic growth in Fluvanna, Louisa, and Greene especially. This growth has made these areas more attractive to people who previously would only have considered living in very close proximity to Charlottesville. Growth on the west end of Richmond has also made Fluvanna and Louisa attractive to people who may work in Richmond, a market that didn’t really exist 3-5 years ago.
Is one area a better long-term investment than another? That question is much more difficult to answer, since there are vast differences within the counties themselves in addition to those differences in relation to each other. The real estate boom that the Charlottesville area has experienced recently has certainly changed the dynamics of the market. That C-Ville Weekly would even do feature story on real estate in the rural counties is just confirmation of that fact.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, fluvanna, louisa, greene, albemarle [/tags]
4300 Homes Coming to Albemarle County
September 14, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Charlottesville Tomorrow has an excellent post on the recent approval of the Biscuit Run subdivision and more homes at the Hollymead Town Center by the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors. Biscuit Run has been one of the more controversial subdivision proposals to come down the pipe in recent memory, but then again, it is the largest subdivision in the history of Albemarle county. Hollymead Town Center is currently the Charlottesville area’s newest hot-spot for shopping and dining. The new approval is for additional retail and residential space.
Most of the other media outlets in the area haven’t released any coverage as of yet, since the approval happened after their deadlines. Charlottesville Tomorrow was right on top of it. Just another reason to love blogs. When worthy additional coverage becomes available, I’ll link to it here.
UPDATE– NBC29 picked up the story on the 6 o’clock news
Coverage from the Daily Progress
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, biscuit run, charlottesville tomorrow [/tags]
August Sales Put a Big Dent in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market
September 14, 2007 | 3 Comments
Time to take a look at the sales stats for August in the Charlottesville Area. As I previously posted, the Charlottesville Association of REALTORS did a bit of foreshadowing for us, but now we have a chance to really see what the situation is. New this month, I am going to a graphic display of the data. It has been my experience that looking at the graphs is a much easier and more meaningful way for people to take in the data, rather than just the raw numbers charts I was posting before. Let me know how you like it.
First up, the month of August:
As you can plainly see from the graph, every area was behind the August pace of 2006. No surprise there. The Charlottesville area as a whole was a whopping 30% off of the sales pace set in August 2006. That is quite a big difference for one month. Fluvanna, Charlottesville, and Albemarle all saw sales dip more than 20% for August. Albemarle had the unfortunate distinction of being the biggest loser of the bunch, down 37% compared to last year.
With August being such a rough month, let’s take a look at how it affected the year-to-date totals for the Charlottesville area:
The year-to-date losses in every area have been significant, with the overall effect being a 22% drop in sales for the Charlottesville area in 2007 compared to 2006. No matter how you look at it, that is a lot less sales from one year to another. The median home price is still up 5% for this year in the Charlottesville area. The only one of the areas that has seen a drop in the median price is Albemarle, where the median is down just a hair over 2% in 2007.
It is a very different real estate market here than what has been experienced in the past. The fundamentals remain the same, however. Accurately priced, well prepared homes will sell. The key for sellers is to realize that accurately pricing a home and preparing it to sell are now absolute must-do items.
For buyers, the market has most assuredly swung in their favor. With all of the inventory on the market, buyers must be as prepared as ever to recognize the best deals available, as there are certainly a few to be had.
September will be an interesting month, in that it marks the end of what is usually considered the “selling season” and it will tell is if August was just a bump in the road or a sign of things to come. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, sales statistics, housing [/tags]
July Charlottesville Real Estate Stats– The Broken Record Plays On. . .
August 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time once again to take a look at the monthly sales statistics for the Charlottesville area real estate market. July continued the trend of falling sales and rising inventories. If you think this is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record, you are not alone. 2007 has been the year of falling sales and rising inventories.
As always, the sales statistics are closed transactions recording in the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and cover the areas included in the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Let’s take a look:
July 2007
July 2006
Breakdown:
Every area was down significantly compared to last year. Albemarle, Charlottesville, and Fluvanna all saw sales drops of at least 32% compared to July of 2006. Greene County was the big loser, 45% less sales, while Nelson saw only an 11% drop (two sales). Over all, the Charlottesville area was off 34% from the sales pace set in July of 2006.
On a positive note, the median home price increased in every area. This helped push the Charlottesville area to a 3% increase in median home price for July.
Now, let’s take a look at how the Charlottesville area is doing year-to-date:
2007 YTD
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
Every area continues to lag behind the sales pace of 2006, which should be a surprise to no one at this point. Albemarle is 15% lower, Charlottesville 32% lower, Fluvanna 20% lower, Greene 35% lower, and Nelson 22% lower. The Charlottesville area as a whole has seen 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006 through July.
The median price data is mixed for the area. Albemarle has actually posted a 3% drop in median home price for 2007. Every other area has posted at least modest gains in median home price, helping push the overall median for the Charlottesville area 4% higher in 2007. I don’t have any hard evidence or statistics to back it up, but my instincts tell me that the drop for Albemarle County is probably due in large part to the changing market for new construction homes. New construction stats are notoriously unreliable from the MLS, but in talking to other industry people, new construction isn’t providing the boost that it normally does in the area. The interesting news is that while sales might be slower, prices are holding. For sellers, this is at least one positive thing.
2007 has been an interesting year in Charlottesville area real estate, and it promises to get more interesting as we move into the second half of the year and look to the horizon through the lens of new mortgage lending restrictions. As difficult as the market may seem right now, the impact of new lending restrictions may still have yet to be experienced in the Charlottesville area. More on that in the next few days. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, sales statistics, housing statistics, fluvanna, greene, nelson, Albemarle [/tags]
Charlottesville Real Estate Market Takes Big Hit in June
July 9, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time to take a look at the June sales statistics for the Charlottesville area real estate market. Overall, the stats did not look good. The drop in June sales compared to last year was significant in every geographical area, and the year-to-date stats reflect the drag that June created. Let’s take a look:
June 2007
June 2006
Breakdown:
June was a tough month for Charlottesville area real estate. Every geographic area posted major losses compared to June of 2006. Area sales were down 41% overall. Charlottesville was the big loser (-57%), Fluvanna and Nelson each saw a 43% drop in sales, and Albemarle and Greene each saw a 33% drop in sales.
News on the median home price was mixed for June. The area was way up (20%), but the median in Fluvanna and Greene Counties lagged behind that of a year ago.
YTD 2007
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
June was not a good month, and the year-to-date statistics reflect that. The Charlottesville area is now 23% behind the sales pace set in 2006. The hardest hit areas are Charlottesville and Greene, down 35% and 36% respectively. Fluvanna is down 19%, Nelson down 25%, and the lone bright spot (if you can call it that) is Albemarle County, which is down a relatively low 14%
While Albemarle might be leading the way in sales, it is falling behind in median home price. The median home price in Albemarle is down 5% compared to last year. Nelson County is the only other area where the median has fallen (-4%). The median in Charlottesville has risen 15%, probably due to the lack of low-price condo sales, which is the same reason for massive sales losses in the City. Fluvanna and Greene Counties have each posted modest gains in median home price of 5% and 6%, respectively.
I took a look back at the June stats that I posted one year ago, and June was a rough month in 2006 as well. If you are wondering why those stats are a bit different than the June 2006 stats I posted today, it is because not all of the closings had been entered into the MLS at the time of the publishing. That is why I now wait a week or two before posting the stats.
It appears that the downturn in the real estate market shows little sign of easing any time soon. Sales continue to fall, and inventory continues to rise. Hopefully, July will be able to provide a bit of a comeback after a June that was difficult to stomach by any standards.
Charlottesville Area Stats for May– Sales Lag, so Does Median Home Price
June 19, 2007 | 1 Comment
It is time to take a look at the sales statistics for the Charlottesville area for the month of May. Unfortunately, Wordpress is giving me problems with picture uploads, so I will do my best to convey the information without the use of fancy graphics. Hopefully I can have the issue resolved in time for the June stats.
May 2007
Overall, the Charlottesville area was down 21% in May compared to last year (308 sales v. 390 sales).
The biggest percentage drop was in Greene County. Greene county’s may sales were 73% lower than last year’s monthly total (13 v. 35).
The City of Charlottesville took the prize for biggest actual drop. The city saw a dip in sales of 37 closed transactions which was 37% lower than last year. My guess is that the lack of condo sales is largely responsible for the drop.
Every other area dipped as well, but the percentages were lower– Albemarle -6%, Fluvanna -10%, Nelson -40%. While Nelson County’s percentage drop was large, this number only represented 7 fewer closed transactions.
Year-to-Date 2007
So far this year, sales in the Charlottesville area are 17% lower than the pace set in 2006. Every individual area is lower as well– Albemarle -8%, Charlottesville -37%, Fluvanna -12%, Greene -37%, Nelson -21%
The most interesting thing to me is not the drop in sales, but the change in the median home price. The median home price for the entire area is down 1%.
The area median is being held down by Albemarle and Nelson Counties. The median home price in Albemarle has dropped 10% so far this year ($301,545 v. $336,718). The median in Nelson has dropped 15% ($260,000 v. $307,500). No matter how you look at it, that is significant. Albemarle has historically been a stellar performer in the area.
It is especially significant in light of the fact that the median for the year has increased in every other area– Charlottesville +11%, Fluvanna +10%, Greene +7%.
It will be interesting to monitor the median price as the year goes on. I fully expected overall sales to be lower this year, but if the median price drops, that would most certainly be headline-grabbing news.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, home sales, housing statistics [/tags]
April Stats for Charlottesville Area Real Estate
May 16, 2007 | 1 Comment
It’s about that time once again. Time to check out the monthly real estate sales statistics for the Charlottesville area. Below are the monthly statistics for April and the year-to-date stats compared to 2006. Let us see what we can see:
April 2007
April 2006
YTD 2007
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Our market is continuing to change, but it is also continuing the pattern of declining sales that was established months ago. For the month of April, every area fell short of the marks set for monthly sales in 2006. The final tally: Albemarle -11%, Charlottesville -43%, Fluvanna -15%, Greene -8%, and Nelson -11%. Overall, the area saw 26% less sales in April 2007 compared to April 2006. As expected, the overall Days on Market (DOM) was up, although Fluvanna actually saw a drop in DOM for April.
For the year-to-date, the news is more of the same. Every area has seen a decrease in sales (Albemarle -14%, Charlottesville -26%, Fluvanna -14%, Greene -29%, Nelson -16%) and the Charlottesville area as a whole is 18% behind the pace set in 2006.
What I find even more intriguing than the sales numbers is the median home price. The median is down in all but two of the areas: Albemarle -10%, Charlottesville -6%, Fluvanna +9%, Greene +16%, and Nelson -33%. Overall, the area median home price has dropped by 4% so far this year. Obviously the year isn’t over, but there are going to have to be significant gains in order to see the area median come out ahead. The most surprising drop is in Albemarle, which is typically the strongest performer out of the bunch. A 10% drop in the median in Albemarle is significant.
A drop in the median is good for buyers. If, however, you bought a home a year ago and are unlucky enough to be forced to sell now, you may end up losing money. Even if you bought a home two years ago, you may be very lucky to break even. This is a reality that many are going to be very unwilling to face.
I’m not sure how many times I can say this, but it bears repeating: THE MARKET OF 2000-2005 IS NOT COMING BACK. To think that we are suddenly going to return to multiple offers and yearly appreciation of 15% is ridiculous. That does not mean, however, that the sky is falling. It simply means that it is time to face the realities of our current market, and act according to what is happening now– not what we wish would happen.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, statistics, housings sales, fluvanna, albemarle, greene, nelson [/tags]
Are People Willing to Accept the Realities of the Current Market?
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It’s about that time again. . .time for the first-quarter real estate sales statistics for the Charlottesville Area. What I found didn’t surprise me, but I wonder if people will take it to heart. . . more on that in a bit; but for right now, here is the raw data:
March 2007
March 2006
Breakdown
I found the March statistics to be interesting. Interesting because they are so varied when you compare them to March of 2006. While the overall numbers may have been down, I don’t think you can call it a decisive shortfall by any stretch. Albemarle and Fluvanna remained virtually unchanged from March ‘06. Charlottesville and Greene were the biggest losers (down 27% and 29% respectively), while Nelson actually saw a 25% increase. The overall result was a 9% decrease in the number of closed transactions from March 2006– not all that bad. On the flip side, the average DOM (Days on Market) is still much higher than last year. The Charlottesville area average DOM jumped almost a full month compared to March of last year. This seems to suggest that the market is settling down a bit, not really moving much up or down, but it will take a few more months to see if that holds true.
First Quarter 2007
First Quarter 2006
Breakdown
The comparison between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2006 is interesting because the two periods parallel each other. In a way, the two quarters are the same, but different. They are the same in that the total number of sales by area for March of each year is very close to, or a little bit above, the per-month sales average for the quarter. In looking back over other years, this is very typical, since March usually signals the beginning of the prime selling season.
The differences in the two quarters are in the DOM and the median sales price. As expected, DOM for 1Q07 was up a just more than a full month compared to 1Q06. With the volume of homes on the market as high as it is, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. The other major change is the median home price. The Charlottesville area 1Q07 median is down 8% compared to 1Q06. The biggest losers of the bunch are Albemarle and Nelson counties; the median in those counties is down 13% and 24% respectively, over the first quarter. The City of Charlottesville was down a little less, about 9%, while Fluvanna and Greene saw slight increases in the median.
Where does this leave us? I think that the best analogy here is an automotive one. When you are on the interstate rolling right along at 80mph or so, life is good. Then, you get off the interstate and travel on a road that is 55 mph. For the first few miles, everything seems to be going in slow-motion. You may even get a little anxious over your lack of rapid progress. In reality, you are traveling the speed limit, but it just feels slow.
That is how I would describe our current real estate market. It just feels slow. The reality of the situation is that homes are selling, and the bottom has not fallen out with regard to prices (as some may have predicted). The fact is that the market we are currently experiencing is the market that is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Inventory will remain high, DOM will probably remain in the 2-3 month range, and prices aren’t going to appreciate at a 15% per year rate anymore. The point is, that’s ok.
What needs to happen is that people need to adjust to our new 55-mph market. If people will simply prepare for the current market, rather than for a market that is long gone, everyone will have a much easier time. The first few miles are behind us, it is time to settle-in and drive.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, real estate statistics, housing statistics [/tags]
Charlottesville Area Real Estate February Stats
March 8, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time once again for a monthly sales report on Charlottesville area real estate. As always, the stats are taken from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS and cover the Charlottesville MSA. Let’s start with the stats for February:
February 2007
February 2006
Breakdown
To be quite honest, I was a bit disappointed by the February sales results. I didn’t expect them to be on pace with 2006, since early 2006 was really just an extension of the stellar year of 2005, but I did expect the sales to be a bit better than they actually were. Every area was down except for Fluvanna (+4%), which experienced one more sale than last February. The final results were: Albemarle -40%, Charlottesville -46%, Greene -25%, and Nelson -36%. The Charlottesville area as a whole experienced 33% less sales than February 2006. A 33% drop might seem like a lot, but the good news is that the median home price remained virtually unchanged. So while the number of sales may have dropped, homes seem to be holding value. In the long run, the importance of holding value will outweigh the importance of selling a lot of homes.
2007 Year-to-Date
2006 Year-to-Date
Breakdown
As expected, the YTD sales for 2007 are trailing a bit behind the pace of 2006. Every area was down: Albemarle -37%, Charlottesville -33%, Fluvanna -18%, Greene -41%, and Nelson -22%. Overall, the Charlottesville area has seen a drop of 33% in the number of sales so far in 2007 compared to 2006. Like the February numbers, the news is not all bad. The median price for the area has not seen a major drop, dipping only 4%. This early in the year, a 4% drop in the median isn’t exactly alarming.
The one thing that did surprise me about the statistics is the fact that total sales numbers have not been this low since 2000. Of course, the median home price for the area in 2000 was LESS THAN HALF what it is now. Sellers have been living the good life since then. The lesson to be learned from all of these statistics is that the market that currently exists is here to stay. I get asked all the time, “when will the market come back?” The simple answer is that it won’t. Prices aren’t really dropping and not skyrocketing either, which is a very good thing; but with the increase in active and potential inventory, and the decrease in sales, the days of one-week sales and multiple offers above list price are getting much fewer and much more infrequent.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, real estate stats, home sales, [/tags]
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Disclaimer
My name is Daniel Rothamel. I am a licensed real estate agent in the Commonwealth of Virginia and a member of the National Association of REALTORS. As such, I adhere to a strict code of ethics and all laws with regard to equal housing, which is reflected in the content of this blog. My broker is Strong Team REALTORS, 86 Joshua Lane, Palmyra, VA 22963; (434) 589-5800. My VA Real Estate License number is 0225 077325. All of the opinions in this blog are mine, unless otherwise noted.
