Charlottesville Real Estate September Sales Statistics
October 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
August was rough, and September wasn’t any better for the Charlottesville real estate market. Below are the charts for the sales in the Charlottesville area in September, and for the entire year-to-date. As always the sales data is compiled from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS.
Let’s take a look:
For the month of September, the Charlottesville area saw a 33% drop in sales compared to September of 2006. Ouch. That is after the 30% year-over-year drop in August. The only area that actually saw an increase in sales was the City of Charlottesville, which had 4 more sales.
Now let’s see how the September numbers affected the year-to-date statistics for the Charlottesville area:
The sales deficit for the year is holding steady at 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006. That makes three consecutive months where the deficit has remained 22% (almost four– in June, the deficit was 23%). If there is some good news here, I guess that is it. If this holding trend continues, it may signal that we are in the bottom of the current dip. Right now, it is too early to be able to tell.
Albemarle is still the only area that has seen a drop in the median sale price at -2%. For the entire Charlottesville area, the median has risen 4.5% so far this year. While that number isn’t exactly spectacular, it is healthy and sustainable, which is a very good thing.
I was hoping that would able to post some Days on Market stats, as the rules have changed around here, but that will have to wait at least another month as the MLS sorts things out.
As we move into the final quarter of the year, the stats are bound to get more and more intriguing as we begin to get a complete picture of the 2007 Year in Real Estate. Stay tuned for more stats.
If you are reading this and have questions about the stats in specific neighborhoods or other areas not covered here, just let me know, I am happy to provide what I can.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, market statistics, housing statistics, median home price, home sales statistics [/tags]
The Charlottesville Area is More than Charlottesville and Albemarle
September 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
This is me in the latest edition of Abode in the C-Ville Weekly. The purpose of the article was to expose people to the idea of looking at real estate in the more rural areas that surround Charlottesville and Albemarle as potentially better long-term investments.
Most of the attention in our area has always been focused on Charlottesville and Albemarle (heck, my personal site is titled “Charlottesville Area Real Estate”). Truth be told, however, the outlying counties (Fluvanna, Albemarle, Louisa, et. al.) have always provided a very attractive alternative to living in Charlottesville and Albemarle. They have been attractive because of their relative affordability.
The contrast in price between Charlottesville/Albemarle and its surrounds was quite stark a few years ago. The first buyer client that I ever worked with came to me looking for a home in Albemarle. For the home he was seeking at the price he could afford, Albemarle had 4 homes listed in the MLS. Fluvanna, on the other hand, offered 30 homes. Where do you think he bought a house?
That gap is now lessening, however. As the market became hotter and hotter, prices rose dramatically in the more rural counties. While those rural counties still tend to be more affordable, for a number of reasons, the gap has shrunk to the point that now people have a real choice to make when they come to the area. The spillover from Charlottesville and Albemarle has lead to economic growth in Fluvanna, Louisa, and Greene especially. This growth has made these areas more attractive to people who previously would only have considered living in very close proximity to Charlottesville. Growth on the west end of Richmond has also made Fluvanna and Louisa attractive to people who may work in Richmond, a market that didn’t really exist 3-5 years ago.
Is one area a better long-term investment than another? That question is much more difficult to answer, since there are vast differences within the counties themselves in addition to those differences in relation to each other. The real estate boom that the Charlottesville area has experienced recently has certainly changed the dynamics of the market. That C-Ville Weekly would even do feature story on real estate in the rural counties is just confirmation of that fact.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, fluvanna, louisa, greene, albemarle [/tags]
July Charlottesville Real Estate Stats– The Broken Record Plays On. . .
August 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time once again to take a look at the monthly sales statistics for the Charlottesville area real estate market. July continued the trend of falling sales and rising inventories. If you think this is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record, you are not alone. 2007 has been the year of falling sales and rising inventories.
As always, the sales statistics are closed transactions recording in the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and cover the areas included in the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Let’s take a look:
July 2007
July 2006
Breakdown:
Every area was down significantly compared to last year. Albemarle, Charlottesville, and Fluvanna all saw sales drops of at least 32% compared to July of 2006. Greene County was the big loser, 45% less sales, while Nelson saw only an 11% drop (two sales). Over all, the Charlottesville area was off 34% from the sales pace set in July of 2006.
On a positive note, the median home price increased in every area. This helped push the Charlottesville area to a 3% increase in median home price for July.
Now, let’s take a look at how the Charlottesville area is doing year-to-date:
2007 YTD
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
Every area continues to lag behind the sales pace of 2006, which should be a surprise to no one at this point. Albemarle is 15% lower, Charlottesville 32% lower, Fluvanna 20% lower, Greene 35% lower, and Nelson 22% lower. The Charlottesville area as a whole has seen 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006 through July.
The median price data is mixed for the area. Albemarle has actually posted a 3% drop in median home price for 2007. Every other area has posted at least modest gains in median home price, helping push the overall median for the Charlottesville area 4% higher in 2007. I don’t have any hard evidence or statistics to back it up, but my instincts tell me that the drop for Albemarle County is probably due in large part to the changing market for new construction homes. New construction stats are notoriously unreliable from the MLS, but in talking to other industry people, new construction isn’t providing the boost that it normally does in the area. The interesting news is that while sales might be slower, prices are holding. For sellers, this is at least one positive thing.
2007 has been an interesting year in Charlottesville area real estate, and it promises to get more interesting as we move into the second half of the year and look to the horizon through the lens of new mortgage lending restrictions. As difficult as the market may seem right now, the impact of new lending restrictions may still have yet to be experienced in the Charlottesville area. More on that in the next few days. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, sales statistics, housing statistics, fluvanna, greene, nelson, Albemarle [/tags]
Charlottesville Area Stats for May– Sales Lag, so Does Median Home Price
June 19, 2007 | 1 Comment
It is time to take a look at the sales statistics for the Charlottesville area for the month of May. Unfortunately, Wordpress is giving me problems with picture uploads, so I will do my best to convey the information without the use of fancy graphics. Hopefully I can have the issue resolved in time for the June stats.
May 2007
Overall, the Charlottesville area was down 21% in May compared to last year (308 sales v. 390 sales).
The biggest percentage drop was in Greene County. Greene county’s may sales were 73% lower than last year’s monthly total (13 v. 35).
The City of Charlottesville took the prize for biggest actual drop. The city saw a dip in sales of 37 closed transactions which was 37% lower than last year. My guess is that the lack of condo sales is largely responsible for the drop.
Every other area dipped as well, but the percentages were lower– Albemarle -6%, Fluvanna -10%, Nelson -40%. While Nelson County’s percentage drop was large, this number only represented 7 fewer closed transactions.
Year-to-Date 2007
So far this year, sales in the Charlottesville area are 17% lower than the pace set in 2006. Every individual area is lower as well– Albemarle -8%, Charlottesville -37%, Fluvanna -12%, Greene -37%, Nelson -21%
The most interesting thing to me is not the drop in sales, but the change in the median home price. The median home price for the entire area is down 1%.
The area median is being held down by Albemarle and Nelson Counties. The median home price in Albemarle has dropped 10% so far this year ($301,545 v. $336,718). The median in Nelson has dropped 15% ($260,000 v. $307,500). No matter how you look at it, that is significant. Albemarle has historically been a stellar performer in the area.
It is especially significant in light of the fact that the median for the year has increased in every other area– Charlottesville +11%, Fluvanna +10%, Greene +7%.
It will be interesting to monitor the median price as the year goes on. I fully expected overall sales to be lower this year, but if the median price drops, that would most certainly be headline-grabbing news.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, home sales, housing statistics [/tags]
April Stats for Charlottesville Area Real Estate
May 16, 2007 | 1 Comment
It’s about that time once again. Time to check out the monthly real estate sales statistics for the Charlottesville area. Below are the monthly statistics for April and the year-to-date stats compared to 2006. Let us see what we can see:
April 2007
April 2006
YTD 2007
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Our market is continuing to change, but it is also continuing the pattern of declining sales that was established months ago. For the month of April, every area fell short of the marks set for monthly sales in 2006. The final tally: Albemarle -11%, Charlottesville -43%, Fluvanna -15%, Greene -8%, and Nelson -11%. Overall, the area saw 26% less sales in April 2007 compared to April 2006. As expected, the overall Days on Market (DOM) was up, although Fluvanna actually saw a drop in DOM for April.
For the year-to-date, the news is more of the same. Every area has seen a decrease in sales (Albemarle -14%, Charlottesville -26%, Fluvanna -14%, Greene -29%, Nelson -16%) and the Charlottesville area as a whole is 18% behind the pace set in 2006.
What I find even more intriguing than the sales numbers is the median home price. The median is down in all but two of the areas: Albemarle -10%, Charlottesville -6%, Fluvanna +9%, Greene +16%, and Nelson -33%. Overall, the area median home price has dropped by 4% so far this year. Obviously the year isn’t over, but there are going to have to be significant gains in order to see the area median come out ahead. The most surprising drop is in Albemarle, which is typically the strongest performer out of the bunch. A 10% drop in the median in Albemarle is significant.
A drop in the median is good for buyers. If, however, you bought a home a year ago and are unlucky enough to be forced to sell now, you may end up losing money. Even if you bought a home two years ago, you may be very lucky to break even. This is a reality that many are going to be very unwilling to face.
I’m not sure how many times I can say this, but it bears repeating: THE MARKET OF 2000-2005 IS NOT COMING BACK. To think that we are suddenly going to return to multiple offers and yearly appreciation of 15% is ridiculous. That does not mean, however, that the sky is falling. It simply means that it is time to face the realities of our current market, and act according to what is happening now– not what we wish would happen.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, statistics, housings sales, fluvanna, albemarle, greene, nelson [/tags]
Are People Willing to Accept the Realities of the Current Market?
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It’s about that time again. . .time for the first-quarter real estate sales statistics for the Charlottesville Area. What I found didn’t surprise me, but I wonder if people will take it to heart. . . more on that in a bit; but for right now, here is the raw data:
March 2007
March 2006
Breakdown
I found the March statistics to be interesting. Interesting because they are so varied when you compare them to March of 2006. While the overall numbers may have been down, I don’t think you can call it a decisive shortfall by any stretch. Albemarle and Fluvanna remained virtually unchanged from March ‘06. Charlottesville and Greene were the biggest losers (down 27% and 29% respectively), while Nelson actually saw a 25% increase. The overall result was a 9% decrease in the number of closed transactions from March 2006– not all that bad. On the flip side, the average DOM (Days on Market) is still much higher than last year. The Charlottesville area average DOM jumped almost a full month compared to March of last year. This seems to suggest that the market is settling down a bit, not really moving much up or down, but it will take a few more months to see if that holds true.
First Quarter 2007
First Quarter 2006
Breakdown
The comparison between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2006 is interesting because the two periods parallel each other. In a way, the two quarters are the same, but different. They are the same in that the total number of sales by area for March of each year is very close to, or a little bit above, the per-month sales average for the quarter. In looking back over other years, this is very typical, since March usually signals the beginning of the prime selling season.
The differences in the two quarters are in the DOM and the median sales price. As expected, DOM for 1Q07 was up a just more than a full month compared to 1Q06. With the volume of homes on the market as high as it is, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. The other major change is the median home price. The Charlottesville area 1Q07 median is down 8% compared to 1Q06. The biggest losers of the bunch are Albemarle and Nelson counties; the median in those counties is down 13% and 24% respectively, over the first quarter. The City of Charlottesville was down a little less, about 9%, while Fluvanna and Greene saw slight increases in the median.
Where does this leave us? I think that the best analogy here is an automotive one. When you are on the interstate rolling right along at 80mph or so, life is good. Then, you get off the interstate and travel on a road that is 55 mph. For the first few miles, everything seems to be going in slow-motion. You may even get a little anxious over your lack of rapid progress. In reality, you are traveling the speed limit, but it just feels slow.
That is how I would describe our current real estate market. It just feels slow. The reality of the situation is that homes are selling, and the bottom has not fallen out with regard to prices (as some may have predicted). The fact is that the market we are currently experiencing is the market that is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Inventory will remain high, DOM will probably remain in the 2-3 month range, and prices aren’t going to appreciate at a 15% per year rate anymore. The point is, that’s ok.
What needs to happen is that people need to adjust to our new 55-mph market. If people will simply prepare for the current market, rather than for a market that is long gone, everyone will have a much easier time. The first few miles are behind us, it is time to settle-in and drive.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, real estate statistics, housing statistics [/tags]
First Set Of 2007 Sales Stats for Charlottesville Area
February 12, 2007 | 1 Comment
The first month of the new year is now well behind us. Since the shine has just about worn off of 2007, it is time to take a look at the sales statistics for the Charlottesville area for January. As always, the stats are pulled from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and cover the areas that comprise the Charlottesville MSA.
January Sales 2007
January Sales 2006
Breakdown
As I expected, most of the areas are a bit behind the pace of January 2006. This isn’t surprising, given the fact that January 2006 was really the tail end of the banner-year of 2005. The only thing I found surprising was that the number of closed transactions in January 2007 trailed behind January 2004 (132 vs. 154). This is surprising due to the fact that inventory has almost doubled during that time (1879 vs. 1077 on January 30th of each year). As one would expect, this has lead to a marked increase in the Days on Market (DOM) for closed transactions. For the area, DOM has increased by 55%, or 41 days from 2006 to 2007.
Closed transactions were down in every area with the City of Charlottesville once again being the lone exception. Charlottesville experienced a whopping 79% increase in sales in January 2007. The median price decreased in Charlottesville for January, suggesting that sales are still being driven by condo conversions and neighborhood redevelopments. Every other area experienced a short fall– Albemarle -37%, Fluvanna -40%, Greene -54%, and Nelson -5%. Only Nelson experienced a decrease in the median home price, so it doesn’t appear that sellers are being hurt too bad in the wallet.
Over the entire Charlottesville area, sales lagged 34% behind their January 2006 mark (132 vs. 199), while the median price remained virtually unchanged (-1.4%) despite median drops in both Charlottesville and Nelson.
This information just serves to further reinforce the idea that the market we are currently experiencing is here to stay. As DOM continues to increase, it will become imperative that sellers adjust their thinking and price their homes to match market trends. Pricing a home with 15% appreciation over 6-12 months may not be realistic anymore, neither is the expectation of a sale in 15 days. While the market in the Charlottesville area is stable, and prices are not receding, it is something different than what many have become accustomed to, and buyers and sellers should act and react accordingly.
Obviously, we are only 1/12 of the way through the year. Much remains to be seen as the year progresses. The January numbers suggest that there are many trends worth watching in 2007.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, virginia, housing statistics, home sales [/tags]
2006 Charlottesville Area Year-End Statistics
January 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
After some strange MLS problems, I was finally able to compile the year end statistics for the Charlottesville area. I compared them with the report that CAAR published, and noticed that despite all the requests to the contrary, there were still additional transactions recorded in the MLS after CAAR published their report. In light of this, I may wait a full 15 days to report stats in the future.
As always, the stats are compiled from the CAAR MLS and cover the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson).
2005 Year-End Sales Data
2006 Year-End Sales Data
Breakdown
Overall, 2006 was not a bad year for real estate. It wasn’t 2005, but since 2005 was a record year, there is really no room for complaint. Charlottesville outpaced all the other areas, posting a 36% increase in sales. Since the majority, if not all, of this increase was the result of condo sales, it will be interesting to see how the city fares in the first few months of 2007. Every other area saw a decrease in sales– Albemarle -16%, Fluvanna -23%, Greene -18%, and Nelson -36%. Overall, the Charlottesville area experienced a 10% decrease in the number of sales.
The good news is that the median home price is continuing to rise for the area. Interestingly, the positive effect that condo sales had in Charlottesville may have negatively affected the median price, since it dropped 4% in the city for 2006. Every other area saw an increase– Albemarle +11%, Fluvanna +5%, Greene +13%, and Nelson +5%. Overall, the Charlottesville area experienced a 6% increase in the median home price for 2006.
Inventory History
Breakdown
While the months of inventory is relatively high as of the end of 2006 (10.37 months of inventory), the good thing is that the overall number of listings on the market has begun to trend downward. This could mean that while their will still be a healthy selection of homes on the market, it won’t feel so much like there is a glut of homes out there that simply won’t sell. It could also mean that people who were previously “testing” the market to see if they could get the price they wanted, have now come to grips with the reality of the market and are either taking their homes off the market or have actually adjusted and sold their homes.
One statistic that I found interesting was that the percentage of list price has gone down steadily over the last few months of 2006. This again leads me to believe that previously unreasonable sellers have been forced to adjust to this market. The only way to see if this remains true in 2007 will be to watch and see if that number begins to inch upward or at least remain the same in the beginning of 2007.
Final Analysis
All things considered, 2006 was a good year for real estate. Much like the hometown UVA football team, 2006 was a transition year for real estate. Granted, most people in real estate fared better in 2006 than the Cavaliers, but hopefully 2007 will meet everyone’s expectations for yet another solid performance by the Charlottesville area real estate market. As for the Cavaliers, I’m not so sure. . .
[tags] charlottesville, real estate, realtor, virginia, albemarle, charlottesville, fluvanna, greene, nelson, statistics, housing statistics [/tags]
Charlottesville Area November Stats Show Us Market Isn’t All Bad
December 11, 2006 | 1 Comment
Winter is just around the corner, and it is time to take a look at the Charlottesville area market statistics for the month of November. As always, the stats are taken from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and the areas represented make up the localities that form the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area.
November Sales By Area
2006
2005
Breakdown:
In what has beginning to sound a bit like a broken record, every area was down, with the lone exception of Charlottesville (+12%). Albemarle slipped 23%, Fluvanna 41%, Greene 25%, and Nelson 45%. Over the entire Charlottesville MSA, the November sales were down 26% compared to 2005.
One thing that I found curious about the stats was the doubling of the Days on Market (DOM) in Albemarle and Charlottesville from 2005 to 2006. This added a full month to the overall DOM for November 2006.
Year-to-Date
2006
2005
Breakdown:
Again, for the entire year, every area is down except for Charlottesville (+36%). Most of the gains made in Charlottesville have been from condo sales, which may explain the fact that both the average sales price and median sales price actually went down in Charlottesville in 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2005, Albemarle is down 15%, Fluvanna down 19%, Greene down 5%, and Nelson down 48%. Combined, this puts the area 11% behind the record-setting pace of 2005.
The news is not all bad, however. In looking at the median sales price for 2006 compared to 2005, the area is experiencing a healthy price appreciation. Overall, the median price has risen 6% through November of 2006. The median price is up in Albemarle (+12%), Fluvanna (+6%), Greene (+13%), and Nelson (+2%). Charlottesville’s median price has gone down 2% in 2006, probably as a result of the massive increase in condo sales in the city. Price appreciation is a sign of a healthy market, despite the fact that the number of sales may be down.
Inventory History
The following chart shows the inventory history for the same areas (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson) in 2005 and 2006:
Breakdown:
November is the first month in 2006 that showed a significant decrease in the total inventory for the Charlottesville area. This brought the figure for Months Inventory under 10 months for the first time since August. Inventory is at historical highs, but the fact that it is going down, during what has traditionally been the slowest time of the year, is a good thing.
Final Analysis
The one aspect of the market that seems to pose the most danger is the inventory. While the overall inventory may be going down, it is rising in some geographic areas and segments of the market. If the inventory rises and sales don’t keep pace, the increase that we have seen in the median home price may begin to slide in the other direction. Every market is going to try to reach an equilibrium where supply will equal demand. If the physical supply is too high, the price of that supply will have to be lowered to a more favorable point.
Sales may be down from the record pace of 2005, but homes are continuing to gain value, which means that 2006 isn’t exactly bad. Both sellers and buyers are simply going to have to adjust their expectations to meet the realities of the current market.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, housing, housing statistics, housing sales, real estate sales [/tags]
Charlottesville Area Sales Continue Trend
November 8, 2006 | 3 Comments
Now that the first week of November is just about over, it is time to take a look at the October sales statistics for the Charlottesville area. Since my template seems to suffer from the same malady as the template over at Behind the Curtain, I am releasing the statistics in a little bit different format. I am using screen grabs from the MLS to show you the numbers, and then I have calculated everything else that the MLS does not. Enjoy!
October Sales by Area
2006
2005
Breakdown:
A look at these stats shows us that for October 2006, every locality showed sales below the level of last October 2005. Albemarle sales were 33% lower, Charlottesville was a whopping 63% lower, Fluvanna was 29% lower, Greene was 24% lower, and Nelson was 6% lower. It is safe to say that the boost that condo sales gave the Charlottesville area has now effectively ended.
2006 Year-to-Date
2005 Year-to-Date
Breakdown:
We all know that 2005 was a banner year for real estate. 2006 is good, but not that good. Charlottesville’s sales for the year have increased by 36% (due almost entirely to condos). Albemarle is down 17%, Fluvanna is down 18%, Greene is down 4% and Nelson is down 37%. The good news is that the median home price is increasing. In fact, the median home price has increased in every locality except for Charlottesville. Again, condo sales are probably responsible for that fact. For the area, the median home price has increased 6% in 2006.
As far as inventory is concerned, I don’t put much faith in the Days on Market (DOM) statistic that the MLS reports because there are too many ways that the statistic can be inaccurately reported. It is, however, the only measure of inventory available. As you can see from the charts above, the average DOM has increased across the area. The increase hasn’t been eye-popping, but when you combine an increase in DOM with an increase in listings and a decrease in overall sales, the inventory begins to pile up. According to the MLS, there is was 11.62 months of inventory on the market when November began.
Now that 2006 is almost over, one would think that most buyers and sellers, and all REALTORS, have discovered that the market of 2006 is not the market of 2005. Those that have not come to this conclusion, and therefore are not acting and preparing accordingly, are probably going to be in for a very long 2007.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, housing, housing statistics, housing sales, real estate sales [/tags]
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Disclaimer
My name is Daniel Rothamel. I am a licensed real estate agent in the Commonwealth of Virginia and a member of the National Association of REALTORS. As such, I adhere to a strict code of ethics and all laws with regard to equal housing, which is reflected in the content of this blog. My broker is Strong Team REALTORS, 86 Joshua Lane, Palmyra, VA 22963; (434) 589-5800. My VA Real Estate License number is 0225 077325. All of the opinions in this blog are mine, unless otherwise noted.
