Charlottesville Real Estate September Sales Statistics
October 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
August was rough, and September wasn’t any better for the Charlottesville real estate market. Below are the charts for the sales in the Charlottesville area in September, and for the entire year-to-date. As always the sales data is compiled from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS.
Let’s take a look:
For the month of September, the Charlottesville area saw a 33% drop in sales compared to September of 2006. Ouch. That is after the 30% year-over-year drop in August. The only area that actually saw an increase in sales was the City of Charlottesville, which had 4 more sales.
Now let’s see how the September numbers affected the year-to-date statistics for the Charlottesville area:
The sales deficit for the year is holding steady at 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006. That makes three consecutive months where the deficit has remained 22% (almost four– in June, the deficit was 23%). If there is some good news here, I guess that is it. If this holding trend continues, it may signal that we are in the bottom of the current dip. Right now, it is too early to be able to tell.
Albemarle is still the only area that has seen a drop in the median sale price at -2%. For the entire Charlottesville area, the median has risen 4.5% so far this year. While that number isn’t exactly spectacular, it is healthy and sustainable, which is a very good thing.
I was hoping that would able to post some Days on Market stats, as the rules have changed around here, but that will have to wait at least another month as the MLS sorts things out.
As we move into the final quarter of the year, the stats are bound to get more and more intriguing as we begin to get a complete picture of the 2007 Year in Real Estate. Stay tuned for more stats.
If you are reading this and have questions about the stats in specific neighborhoods or other areas not covered here, just let me know, I am happy to provide what I can.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, market statistics, housing statistics, median home price, home sales statistics [/tags]
Charlottesville Real Estate to See More Accurate Days On Market Stats
September 27, 2007 | 1 Comment
I received a pleasant surprise this morning in the form of the new email newsletter from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS. The newsletter contained the following announcement:
Beginning October 1, the MLS system will track Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM). CDOM is a count of the total time an address or parcel ID has been on the market, as compared to DOM (Days on Market) which is a measure of how long a specific MLS number has been on the market. The rules for withdrawing and re-listing properties will also change on October 1 [. . .]
All I can say about this is. . .FINALLY! This should eliminate most of the DOM gaming that goes on. I can tell you that one of the most frustrating things that I have to do for clients is to try and determine the true days on market for a property. I am hoping that the system will be able to show both the CDOM and the DOM. This way, prospective buyers will know how long a property has been actively for sale, and they will also be able to tell how long the current listing agent has had the property.
I am definitely curious to see how the whole thing works out, and the new rules for withdrawing and re-listing properties should prove very interesting. More to come on that front.
As excited as I am about the change, I am still a firm believer in the Law of Unintended Consequences. I just hope that what should be positive change doesn’t become a snafu.
Time will tell. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, days on market [/tags]
August Sales Put a Big Dent in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market
September 14, 2007 | 3 Comments
Time to take a look at the sales stats for August in the Charlottesville Area. As I previously posted, the Charlottesville Association of REALTORS did a bit of foreshadowing for us, but now we have a chance to really see what the situation is. New this month, I am going to a graphic display of the data. It has been my experience that looking at the graphs is a much easier and more meaningful way for people to take in the data, rather than just the raw numbers charts I was posting before. Let me know how you like it.
First up, the month of August:
As you can plainly see from the graph, every area was behind the August pace of 2006. No surprise there. The Charlottesville area as a whole was a whopping 30% off of the sales pace set in August 2006. That is quite a big difference for one month. Fluvanna, Charlottesville, and Albemarle all saw sales dip more than 20% for August. Albemarle had the unfortunate distinction of being the biggest loser of the bunch, down 37% compared to last year.
With August being such a rough month, let’s take a look at how it affected the year-to-date totals for the Charlottesville area:
The year-to-date losses in every area have been significant, with the overall effect being a 22% drop in sales for the Charlottesville area in 2007 compared to 2006. No matter how you look at it, that is a lot less sales from one year to another. The median home price is still up 5% for this year in the Charlottesville area. The only one of the areas that has seen a drop in the median price is Albemarle, where the median is down just a hair over 2% in 2007.
It is a very different real estate market here than what has been experienced in the past. The fundamentals remain the same, however. Accurately priced, well prepared homes will sell. The key for sellers is to realize that accurately pricing a home and preparing it to sell are now absolute must-do items.
For buyers, the market has most assuredly swung in their favor. With all of the inventory on the market, buyers must be as prepared as ever to recognize the best deals available, as there are certainly a few to be had.
September will be an interesting month, in that it marks the end of what is usually considered the “selling season” and it will tell is if August was just a bump in the road or a sign of things to come. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, sales statistics, housing [/tags]
Sometimes, No News is Good News; and Sometimes, None of the News is Good
September 6, 2007 | 1 Comment
The following is a quote from the latest edition of the real estate newsletter that I receive from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS (it goes out to all the REALTORS):
August Sales Slowest in 10 Years
This probably will not shock most of you, but sales in August took a significant dip. The 304 sales reported to the MLS in August were the fewest since 1998. Until August, the local market was soft, but doing well by historic measures. We had been tracking along with the 2004 numbers which were the third highest in local history. For the year, we are 620 sales behind last year (down 19.2%). As bad as that sounds, we are still on course to have the 4th highest sales year ever. The main concern in the market seems to be the negative press about the mortgage crisis. While our area is not part of the crisis, we are feeling the effects of this national problem.
That’s not how I want to be greeted in the morning. It makes sense, however, and jives perfectly with a story I read today on USAToday.com regarding the number of pending home sales in July. From the article:
“Numbers like this should put to rest the belief that we’ve reached the bottom” in the housing market, said Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bancorp. “There’s still a lot of pain that’s ahead of us.”
Ouch.
It makes perfect sense that if the pending home sales in July are down, then sold properties in August are going to follow. I’ll be posting the August sales stats within the next few days, so we shall see how the local picture looks. Given the news I have been reading today, I’m not very optimistic.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, market statistics [/tags]
July Charlottesville Real Estate Stats– The Broken Record Plays On. . .
August 17, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time once again to take a look at the monthly sales statistics for the Charlottesville area real estate market. July continued the trend of falling sales and rising inventories. If you think this is beginning to sound a bit like a broken record, you are not alone. 2007 has been the year of falling sales and rising inventories.
As always, the sales statistics are closed transactions recording in the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and cover the areas included in the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Let’s take a look:
July 2007
July 2006
Breakdown:
Every area was down significantly compared to last year. Albemarle, Charlottesville, and Fluvanna all saw sales drops of at least 32% compared to July of 2006. Greene County was the big loser, 45% less sales, while Nelson saw only an 11% drop (two sales). Over all, the Charlottesville area was off 34% from the sales pace set in July of 2006.
On a positive note, the median home price increased in every area. This helped push the Charlottesville area to a 3% increase in median home price for July.
Now, let’s take a look at how the Charlottesville area is doing year-to-date:
2007 YTD
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
Every area continues to lag behind the sales pace of 2006, which should be a surprise to no one at this point. Albemarle is 15% lower, Charlottesville 32% lower, Fluvanna 20% lower, Greene 35% lower, and Nelson 22% lower. The Charlottesville area as a whole has seen 22% less sales in 2007 compared to 2006 through July.
The median price data is mixed for the area. Albemarle has actually posted a 3% drop in median home price for 2007. Every other area has posted at least modest gains in median home price, helping push the overall median for the Charlottesville area 4% higher in 2007. I don’t have any hard evidence or statistics to back it up, but my instincts tell me that the drop for Albemarle County is probably due in large part to the changing market for new construction homes. New construction stats are notoriously unreliable from the MLS, but in talking to other industry people, new construction isn’t providing the boost that it normally does in the area. The interesting news is that while sales might be slower, prices are holding. For sellers, this is at least one positive thing.
2007 has been an interesting year in Charlottesville area real estate, and it promises to get more interesting as we move into the second half of the year and look to the horizon through the lens of new mortgage lending restrictions. As difficult as the market may seem right now, the impact of new lending restrictions may still have yet to be experienced in the Charlottesville area. More on that in the next few days. . .
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, sales statistics, housing statistics, fluvanna, greene, nelson, Albemarle [/tags]
Real Estate Ain’t So Local Anymore
August 6, 2007 | Leave a Comment
I will be posting the sales statistics for the Charlottesville area on Friday. As always, it should prove interesting, so be sure to check back for them.
The statistics got me to thinking about the real estate market, or more specifically, how the real estate market is talked about. There is an old saying that, “real estate and politics is local,” meaning that political issues and the real estate market are affected more by geographic location than anything else. We all know that this is true to some extent, and market data bears this fact out. The real estate market in Charlottesville is going to be different than the market in San Franciso, or Chicago, or even Richmond, for that matter.
While it is true that the real estate market is affected more by local conditions than any other factor, it appears to me that there are more and more external influences coming into play, the largest of which is media coverage of real estate. By media coverage, I am referring not only to news journalism, but also to popular media like cable TV shows such as “Flip That House” or “Property Ladder.” Because information is so easily and quickly accessible, thanks in no small part to the Internet, what once was only local can now be broadcast to an entire country.
The current real estate market is a perfect example of this. Media coverage of the national real estate market is all about falling prices, rising inventories, and loads of foreclosures. While this macro-view of the real estate market may be accurate, it doesn’t necessarily apply locally. In the Charlottesville area, we have seen rising inventories to be sure, but prices have remained relatively stable. And while foreclosures in the area may have increased (to be honest, I don’t know, as I haven’t seen any local stats for this), sub-prime lending certainly has not had the same effect here that it has had in say, California.
To some degree, however, none of this matters. Real estate consumers are being constantly bombarded with this information, and whether or not is applies directly to their local markets, it will affect the way in which they make decisions about buying and selling. If enough buyers hear and read stories about how sellers are having to take contracts for 10%-15% below their asking price, they are going to act accordingly. This will happen regardless of the fact that they sellers in the stories are in Los Angeles and they are buying a house in Charlottesville.
Our current information age has made the world a much smaller place. It has made us more connected than ever, and has the power to erase divisions and blur borders. Because of this, real estate markets are affected not only by the conditions in their local area, but also by the conditions in other markets, near and far.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, media [/tags]
If You Want to See Things Clearly, You Need to Get the Right Angle
July 11, 2007 | 1 Comment
Summer time, being the basketball off-season, is the time for officiating camps. A few weeks ago I attended a great camp that I have gone to for the past few years. It is put on by my college conference supervisors, and the knowledge that I gain there every year has proved most valuable as I continue in my officiating career. Every time I hear something interesting in camp, I always wonder how it might also help me in my career as a REALTOR. Something I recently read prompted me to think back to one of my recently learned officiating lessons. . .
Michael Cook, a contributor at the BloodhoundBlog, wrote an interesting post regarding what industry people are saying about a likely timeframe for a real estate market recovery. His post was interesting to me because it provided differing perspectives on the national real estate market. The reason that his post made me think of basketball officiating is because both real estate analysis and basketball officiating rely heavily on “perspective” for success.
Successful basketball officiating, at its very core, is about perspective. In officiating, we refer to it as “getting the right angle.” No matter how well you know the rules, if you have a bad angle on a play, you can’t see it, and you are doomed to fail. Typically, the reason that a call is missed in a game is not because the official is incompetent, but because he or she usually failed to get the best angle on the play and couldn’t possibly see it entirely. The proper perspective is paramount to officiating success.
Perspective is equally important in real estate. This is especially true when you are talking about analyzing the real estate market. As the popular saying goes, “all real estate is local.” This means that what may be true in one area isn’t necessarily true in another. It is a matter of your perspective. I imagine that if I started talking to a REALTOR from New York City, we would have different takes on the current state of the real estate market because of our different perspectives.
Perspective is an important thing to think about when sifting through real estate advice or analysis. You need to know the perspective of the person doing the analysis. Is this person a builder? an investor? a REALTOR? Where is the person located geographically? All of these questions help establish a person’s perspective. Once you can do that, you can look at their opinion through the prism of your own perspective.
Know the perspective, get the angle; doing this will give you a much more complete picture of the issue at hand.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, analysis, perspective [/tags]
Charlottesville Real Estate Market Takes Big Hit in June
July 9, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It is time to take a look at the June sales statistics for the Charlottesville area real estate market. Overall, the stats did not look good. The drop in June sales compared to last year was significant in every geographical area, and the year-to-date stats reflect the drag that June created. Let’s take a look:
June 2007
June 2006
Breakdown:
June was a tough month for Charlottesville area real estate. Every geographic area posted major losses compared to June of 2006. Area sales were down 41% overall. Charlottesville was the big loser (-57%), Fluvanna and Nelson each saw a 43% drop in sales, and Albemarle and Greene each saw a 33% drop in sales.
News on the median home price was mixed for June. The area was way up (20%), but the median in Fluvanna and Greene Counties lagged behind that of a year ago.
YTD 2007
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
June was not a good month, and the year-to-date statistics reflect that. The Charlottesville area is now 23% behind the sales pace set in 2006. The hardest hit areas are Charlottesville and Greene, down 35% and 36% respectively. Fluvanna is down 19%, Nelson down 25%, and the lone bright spot (if you can call it that) is Albemarle County, which is down a relatively low 14%
While Albemarle might be leading the way in sales, it is falling behind in median home price. The median home price in Albemarle is down 5% compared to last year. Nelson County is the only other area where the median has fallen (-4%). The median in Charlottesville has risen 15%, probably due to the lack of low-price condo sales, which is the same reason for massive sales losses in the City. Fluvanna and Greene Counties have each posted modest gains in median home price of 5% and 6%, respectively.
I took a look back at the June stats that I posted one year ago, and June was a rough month in 2006 as well. If you are wondering why those stats are a bit different than the June 2006 stats I posted today, it is because not all of the closings had been entered into the MLS at the time of the publishing. That is why I now wait a week or two before posting the stats.
It appears that the downturn in the real estate market shows little sign of easing any time soon. Sales continue to fall, and inventory continues to rise. Hopefully, July will be able to provide a bit of a comeback after a June that was difficult to stomach by any standards.
Charlottesville Area Stats for May– Sales Lag, so Does Median Home Price
June 19, 2007 | 1 Comment
It is time to take a look at the sales statistics for the Charlottesville area for the month of May. Unfortunately, Wordpress is giving me problems with picture uploads, so I will do my best to convey the information without the use of fancy graphics. Hopefully I can have the issue resolved in time for the June stats.
May 2007
Overall, the Charlottesville area was down 21% in May compared to last year (308 sales v. 390 sales).
The biggest percentage drop was in Greene County. Greene county’s may sales were 73% lower than last year’s monthly total (13 v. 35).
The City of Charlottesville took the prize for biggest actual drop. The city saw a dip in sales of 37 closed transactions which was 37% lower than last year. My guess is that the lack of condo sales is largely responsible for the drop.
Every other area dipped as well, but the percentages were lower– Albemarle -6%, Fluvanna -10%, Nelson -40%. While Nelson County’s percentage drop was large, this number only represented 7 fewer closed transactions.
Year-to-Date 2007
So far this year, sales in the Charlottesville area are 17% lower than the pace set in 2006. Every individual area is lower as well– Albemarle -8%, Charlottesville -37%, Fluvanna -12%, Greene -37%, Nelson -21%
The most interesting thing to me is not the drop in sales, but the change in the median home price. The median home price for the entire area is down 1%.
The area median is being held down by Albemarle and Nelson Counties. The median home price in Albemarle has dropped 10% so far this year ($301,545 v. $336,718). The median in Nelson has dropped 15% ($260,000 v. $307,500). No matter how you look at it, that is significant. Albemarle has historically been a stellar performer in the area.
It is especially significant in light of the fact that the median for the year has increased in every other area– Charlottesville +11%, Fluvanna +10%, Greene +7%.
It will be interesting to monitor the median price as the year goes on. I fully expected overall sales to be lower this year, but if the median price drops, that would most certainly be headline-grabbing news.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, home sales, housing statistics [/tags]
April Stats for Charlottesville Area Real Estate
May 16, 2007 | 1 Comment
It’s about that time once again. Time to check out the monthly real estate sales statistics for the Charlottesville area. Below are the monthly statistics for April and the year-to-date stats compared to 2006. Let us see what we can see:
April 2007
April 2006
YTD 2007
YTD 2006
Breakdown:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Our market is continuing to change, but it is also continuing the pattern of declining sales that was established months ago. For the month of April, every area fell short of the marks set for monthly sales in 2006. The final tally: Albemarle -11%, Charlottesville -43%, Fluvanna -15%, Greene -8%, and Nelson -11%. Overall, the area saw 26% less sales in April 2007 compared to April 2006. As expected, the overall Days on Market (DOM) was up, although Fluvanna actually saw a drop in DOM for April.
For the year-to-date, the news is more of the same. Every area has seen a decrease in sales (Albemarle -14%, Charlottesville -26%, Fluvanna -14%, Greene -29%, Nelson -16%) and the Charlottesville area as a whole is 18% behind the pace set in 2006.
What I find even more intriguing than the sales numbers is the median home price. The median is down in all but two of the areas: Albemarle -10%, Charlottesville -6%, Fluvanna +9%, Greene +16%, and Nelson -33%. Overall, the area median home price has dropped by 4% so far this year. Obviously the year isn’t over, but there are going to have to be significant gains in order to see the area median come out ahead. The most surprising drop is in Albemarle, which is typically the strongest performer out of the bunch. A 10% drop in the median in Albemarle is significant.
A drop in the median is good for buyers. If, however, you bought a home a year ago and are unlucky enough to be forced to sell now, you may end up losing money. Even if you bought a home two years ago, you may be very lucky to break even. This is a reality that many are going to be very unwilling to face.
I’m not sure how many times I can say this, but it bears repeating: THE MARKET OF 2000-2005 IS NOT COMING BACK. To think that we are suddenly going to return to multiple offers and yearly appreciation of 15% is ridiculous. That does not mean, however, that the sky is falling. It simply means that it is time to face the realities of our current market, and act according to what is happening now– not what we wish would happen.
[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, virginia, statistics, housings sales, fluvanna, albemarle, greene, nelson [/tags]
-
Connect With Me
-
Listen to ZebraTalk
-
Read the Zebra on AgentGenius
-
Disclaimer
My name is Daniel Rothamel. I am a licensed real estate agent in the Commonwealth of Virginia and a member of the National Association of REALTORS. As such, I adhere to a strict code of ethics and all laws with regard to equal housing, which is reflected in the content of this blog. My broker is Strong Team REALTORS, 86 Joshua Lane, Palmyra, VA 22963; (434) 589-5800. My VA Real Estate License number is 0225 077325. All of the opinions in this blog are mine, unless otherwise noted.
