Charlottesville Area November Stats Show Us Market Isn’t All Bad

December 11, 2006 |

Winter is just around the corner, and it is time to take a look at the Charlottesville area market statistics for the month of November.  As always, the stats are taken from the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS MLS, and the areas represented make up the localities that form the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area.
November Sales By Area

2006

november06

2005

november05

Breakdown:

In what has beginning to sound a bit like a broken record, every area was down, with the lone exception of Charlottesville (+12%). Albemarle slipped 23%, Fluvanna 41%, Greene 25%, and Nelson 45%. Over the entire Charlottesville MSA, the November sales were down 26% compared to 2005.

One thing that I found curious about the stats was the doubling of the Days on Market (DOM) in Albemarle and Charlottesville from 2005 to 2006. This added a full month to the overall DOM for November 2006.

Year-to-Date

2006

YTD11-06

2005

YTD11-05

Breakdown:

Again, for the entire year, every area is down except for Charlottesville (+36%). Most of the gains made in Charlottesville have been from condo sales, which may explain the fact that both the average sales price and median sales price actually went down in Charlottesville in 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2005, Albemarle is down 15%, Fluvanna down 19%, Greene down 5%, and Nelson down 48%. Combined, this puts the area 11% behind the record-setting pace of 2005.

The news is not all bad, however. In looking at the median sales price for 2006 compared to 2005, the area is experiencing a healthy price appreciation. Overall, the median price has risen 6% through November of 2006. The median price is up in Albemarle (+12%), Fluvanna (+6%), Greene (+13%), and Nelson (+2%). Charlottesville’s median price has gone down 2% in 2006, probably as a result of the massive increase in condo sales in the city. Price appreciation is a sign of a healthy market, despite the fact that the number of sales may be down.

Inventory History

The following chart shows the inventory history for the same areas (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson) in 2005 and 2006:

InventoryHistory

Breakdown:

November is the first month in 2006 that showed a significant decrease in the total inventory for the Charlottesville area. This brought the figure for Months Inventory under 10 months for the first time since August. Inventory is at historical highs, but the fact that it is going down, during what has traditionally been the slowest time of the year, is a good thing.

Final Analysis

The one aspect of the market that seems to pose the most danger is the inventory. While the overall inventory may be going down, it is rising in some geographic areas and segments of the market. If the inventory rises and sales don’t keep pace, the increase that we have seen in the median home price may begin to slide in the other direction. Every market is going to try to reach an equilibrium where supply will equal demand. If the physical supply is too high, the price of that supply will have to be lowered to a more favorable point.

Sales may be down from the record pace of 2005, but homes are continuing to gain value, which means that 2006 isn’t exactly bad. Both sellers and buyers are simply going to have to adjust their expectations to meet the realities of the current market.

[tags] real estate, realtor, charlottesville, albemarle, fluvanna, greene, nelson, housing, housing statistics, housing sales, real estate sales [/tags]

Posted by Daniel | Filed Under Albemarle, Buying, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Market Statistics, News, Selling 

Comments

One Response to “Charlottesville Area November Stats Show Us Market Isn’t All Bad”

  1. teresa boardman on December 14th, 2006 4:01 am

    At the moment your market looks a little better than ours. We still have about a 7 month supply of homens on the market. The number of listings have gone down, and so have the number of sales. We do really slow down in the winter and it has picked up in the last month or so.

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