Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra
April 3, 2008 |
Last week, I had the opportunity to have lunch with Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS. Of course, it wasn’t just me and him, the group was made up of myself and fellow bloggers Jim Duncan, Matthew Rathbun, Danilo Bogdanovic, Scott Rogers, Ben Martin and the CEO of the Virginia Association of REALTORS, R. Scott Brunner.
Sitting down for lunch with Dr. Yun was a unique opportunity. Sitting down for conversation with a group of insightful and intelligent REALTORS made the opportunity all the more valuable. We will be sharing our experiences today. Make sure to read all of the posts, since you are sure to get very different perspectives from everyone. Here’s mine. . .
Looking at Lawrence Yun Through a Zebra’s Eyes
When I have meetings like this, ones in which I am meeting someone for the very first time, and especially someone who has a popular perception that precedes him, I always rely on my experiences and training as a referee.
Why do I do this? Simple– as a referee, I am constantly interacting with coaches on a professional level in highly charged, emotional and potentially confrontational situations. When I meet coaches for the first time, I have a very short period of time (sometimes, literally a handshake) to establish credibility and try to discern from them how a game will go. I have to be very observant, learn as quickly as I can what makes them tick, how they react in certain situations, what will set them off, what will calm them down, etc.
I approached the lunch with Dr. Yun the same way. I approached him as I would a coach. Sure, I’ve heard all of the criticism of Dr. Yun, but I wanted to meet the man for myself. I wanted to find out what makes him tick and how he really feels about certain issues. These are the things beyond his title as Chief Economist of NAR. These are important things.
Dr. Yun Doesn’t Shrink from Criticism
All of us at the lunch knew that this wasn’t an interrogation. It wasn’t even an interview, really. It was a discussion. Of course, we all came prepared with our questions, and he was very ready to answer them. In I guess what you could call an attempt to address the elephant in the room the very first issue addressed was the vehement criticism of Dr. Yun from the blogosphere. We wanted to know if he reads the criticism, and what he thinks about it.
He didn’t flinch. His response was that he doesn’t seek out the criticism, but that his colleagues occasionally make him aware of it. He knows that criticism is an important part of a free society. What impressed me about his response was that he actually appreciates the criticism, when it brings up valid points and arguments. He wants to know when people have a problem with the forecasts and analysis of the NAR research group. His answer had no hint of hubris, or conceit. He didn’t brush the criticism aside, even if he doesn’t always agree with it.
The Data is Sacred
Going into this lunch, I was very interested in the process that goes into NAR economic forecasts and analysis. My contention has always been that since economists are scientists, you can say whatever you want about them personally, but the thing that really matters is the method behind what they do. You might night like the personality of an economist, but if his method is sound, then you can’t call him a hack, or accuse him of any malevolence.
The thing that Dr. Yun mentioned more than once when we talked about the forecasting process is that, “the data is sacred.” He has a deep understanding and appreciation for the fact that great care must be taken to ensure that the data upon which forecasts are based must be the best data available, and that it must be trustworthy. Without that, the whole process fails. This is one reason why he doesn’t personally compile the data. He has a staff of economists that independently gather the data and then share it with him. He merely applies his forecasting models to the collected data. This data is gathered from various sources, some through NAR research, and some through the research of various government agencies.
When talking about the forecasting and research process, it was very apparent that Dr. Yun has a very high regard for the method used. There was no equivocation, no wavering, no disclaimers, “the data is sacred.” It was important to hear him say that.
When it Rolls Down Hill, Guess Who Stands at the Bottom?
While we were talking about the processes behind what comes out of NAR, Dr. Yun mentioned that he is involved in the NAR meetings about national messaging. You know, these are the meetings that are partially responsible for all those TV and radio ads that we just love.
Knowing this prompted me to ask him a very pointed question, “since you are involved in the messaging meetings, are the other executives at NAR involved in the forecasting process?” To me, this is important. Dr. Yun’s answer was simple:
“No. The buck stops with me.”
When it comes to releasing the forecasting and research reports, Dr. Yun lives on an island. He alone is responsible for the releases. He alone is responsible for making the tough calls. There is no one adding input, no one telling him what to say. He gets all the glory (when there is any to be had), and he definitely bears the brunt of all the criticism.
What surprised me was that I had no idea how dependent upon NAR data our entire economy is. We discovered that Dr. Yun is in constant contact with government agencies and economic powers. Whenever the government needs housing market data, guess who they call? When foreign governments and financial institutions have questions about the American housing market, guess who they call?
This revelation gave me an interesting perspective on housing market questions. Having a client stop me in the grocery store and ask me, “how’s the market?” is quite a bit different than receiving the same question from the Department of Commerce.
Lawrence Yun Is a Zebra
Now having met Dr. Yun in person, sitting next to him, breaking bread with him, listening to him, observing him, digesting his answers, it became apparent to me that Dr. Yun would probably make one heck of a basketball referee. Here’s why:
He can take criticism (he surely gets plenty of it). This is one of the most basic things that a basketball referee needs to learn. People are going to scream and yell at you, people are going to hate you sometimes. The trick is knowing which voices are valid, and which ones are just yelling. Sometimes it’s about ignoring the way in which someone criticizes in order to figure out if their criticism is valid.
He respects the fundamentals of his work. For referees, it all starts with the rules. If you don’t know the rules, you can’t possibly do a good job. Mistakes in judgement will be made, rules mistakes are unacceptable. For Dr. Yun, it all starts with the data and preserving the integrity of the data and the process by which it is gathered and interpreted.
He embraces the finality of his responsibility. When the whistle blows, everyone stops and looks at you. Basketball referees live and die by every call. Every referee knows this and doesn’t shy away from the tough calls that must be made. Dr. Yun knows that the nature of his position is such that he leads with his chin. In the end, he knows he can’t pass off his responsibilities to some one else. The forecast models are his, the reports are his, and he can’t point the finger at someone else. He is not only aware of this fact, but seems to embrace it.
What I Learned
Coming into this lunch, I didn’t really have any expectations. I just wanted to try and gain a better understanding of Dr. Yun and try to see his job through his eyes. Plenty of other people have offered their opinion as to what he does, so it was interesting to me to hear how he interprets his work and his responsibilities.
One of the things that was quite refreshing was the candidness of Dr. Yun. He didn’t dodge any of the questions. That’s not to say his answers weren’t diplomatic, but he didn’t dismiss any of them. He also is very open to interaction with the membership. It seems to me that he genuinely cares not only about his job, but about the job that REALTORS do on a daily basis. There was much discussion about how his department could help REALTORS on the ground in their daily interactions with the public. I almost got the sense that he wishes he could have more interaction, but that he understands the line that must exist. He never specifically said that, but that was just my impression. To his credit, the research department seems more available and willing to engage now than ever before.
This lunch was a very valuable experience. It gave me a new way of looking at some of the criticism that is sure to come when the next market forecast is released. I got to see things from another perspective, and a very important one, at that. More than anything, I got to shake the man’s hand, look into his eyes, and make a determination for myself how I felt about him. The verdict–
somebody give that guy a whistle and some stripes
UPDATE:
Here are the links to the posts of the other attendees:
Danilo Bogdanovic
Jim Duncan
Scott Rogers @ VARBuzz
Matthew Rathbun @ AgentGenius
Ben Martin, blogger and VAR Staff/Social Media guru
Comments
11 Responses to “Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra”
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Disclaimer
My name is Daniel Rothamel. I am a licensed real estate agent in the Commonwealth of Virginia and a member of the National Association of REALTORS. As such, I adhere to a strict code of ethics and all laws with regard to equal housing, which is reflected in the content of this blog. My broker is Strong Team REALTORS, 86 Joshua Lane, Palmyra, VA 22963; (434) 589-5800. My VA Real Estate License number is 0225 077325. All of the opinions in this blog are mine, unless otherwise noted.
True leaders say,”the buck stops here”. What a great opportunity, it is obvious you came away with a great deal of respect for him. Sounds like he didn’t share the “sacred data” or the formula he uses to get it.
Very interesting, I rarely read blog posts this long, but it was good.
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[...] Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra (Daniel @ realestatezebra.com) [...]
[...] Bogdanovic Daniel Rothamel Scott Rogers @ VARBuzz Matthew Rathbun @ AgentGenius Ben Martin, blogger and VAR Staff Scott [...]
It is good to know Mr. Yun is a principled man who does rely on the rules for guidance. It is too bad he has to be the subject of criticism, but guess that goes with the territory.
We In Denver actually like him a lot, he has good things to say about our city and it’s future.
I’m happy he has been virtually inducted to the Zebra cadre.
That in itself speaks volumes.
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Daniel — Excellent effort, and a very nice analogy.
Yun is also, at least in the latest rankings, in the top 5-6 economic forecasters in the country. His record so far, has been among the elite. An obvious change for the better at NAR.
I’d say Yun is most likely a ‘Blue’ rather than a Zebra.
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Thanks for sharing your perspective.
[Reply]
[...] grills Lawrence Yun and serves him with a minty sauce. Daniel likes Dr. Yun. I’m tending to agree with Daniel. Yun is doing a better and better job, cleaning up the huge [...]
Thanks for writing a detailed post. Sounds like the lunch was very informative for all involved.
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Great anaology and great read. It’s not everyday you get a chance to pick the brain of someone so pwerful. However, I’m not totally convinced of his prowess just yet, that is unless this nice qoute of hisends up becoming true:
“Sales will recover gradually over the second half of the year and prices will begin to edge up again”
[Reply]
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